World market: wheat and sugar prices have fallen

The World of NAN editorial analyst presents a brief overview of the world markets of agricultural products for 8 - 19 July.

Wheat prices in the world have shown a noticeable decline over the last two weeks. The price of soft wheat in Chicago fell by 5.2% during this period, reaching $199 per ton. Hard Red Winter was down 4.2% to $209. In other news, contracted US wheat exports this year reached 7.8 million tons, 35% of the Agriculture Department's forecast and 1% above the usual pace for this time of year. And by 14 July, 71% of the US winter wheat crop had been harvested, 9% more than the average pace. The International Grains Council also updated its forecast for global wheat production, increasing it by 8 million tons, which will also increase forecast stocks by about 8 million tons. 

The price index for exported Russian wheat in Black Sea ports also decreased from $235 to $227 per ton. The duty on Russian wheat exports fell by 9.5% over the two weeks to 1540.4 roubles per ton after the fall in world prices. According to the data of Kazakhstan commodity exchange ETS, the last deals on wheat were held on 15 July. On that day, the price of 5th class wheat was ₸84,000 per ton, which is ₸6,000 less than it was a fortnight ago. For sugar, several transactions took place at once last Friday at around ₸360-365k per ton, indicating a slight price increase (₸5-10k) over the past two weeks.

In London, sugar prices also fell by 5.9% over the two weeks to $541 per ton. The main reason for the price drop is a significant improvement in the sugar supply forecast by Covrig Analytics. While earlier analysts expected a sugar deficit of 2.6 million tons for the 2024/25 season, this forecast has now changed to a small surplus of 182,000 tons. In addition, sugar production in Brazil continues to grow: from March to June, production totalled 14.2 million tons (+15.7%).

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