Global Grains Trade Expected to Decline

FAO has presented a new release of the summary of cereal supply and demand. Experts estimate a 1.2 percent year-on-year decline in global cereal trade for 2021-2022 (July/June), World of NAN reports citing the FAO.

Trade in maize and other coarse grains is projected to decline, while trade in rice might increase by 3.8 percent and in wheat by 1.0 percent, owing to better-than-expected exports from the Russian Federation to Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey.

With almost all grains already harvested, FAO expects global grain production in 2021 to be 2,799 million tons, up 0.8% from the 2019-2020 season.

Global cereal consumption for the 2021-2022 season is projected to increase by 0.9% over the previous year to 2,785 million tons.

FAO estimates the level of cereal stocks in the world at the end of the 2022 season at 856 million tons, which is 2.8% higher than at the beginning of the season and is mainly due to the suspension of exports from Ukraine. If this FAO forecast is confirmed, the ratio of cereal stocks in the world to their consumption will be 29.7%, "remaining generally at a fairly comfortable level.

FAO still expects the volume of wheat production in the world in 2022 to reach 782 million tons. The projections take into account an expected 20 percent decline in cultivated area in Ukraine, as well as a drought-induced decrease in production in Morocco.

As for coarse grains, Brazil is expected to produce a record 116 million tons of corn in 2022, but weather conditions could result in lower corn production in Argentina and South Africa, according to the report. According to preliminary data, U.S. corn acreage could decline by 4 percent amid concerns about the high cost of fertilizer and other inputs.

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