The president's directive seems unfeasible

President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev received the Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov and instructed him to increase the volume of gross agricultural output by 2 times within 5 years. The analyst of the World of NAN editorial board analyzed how realistic it is.

In general, the math is simple: multiply the received agricultural output by its cost and summarize everything by industry. The only question is about prices, because they are more often rising than falling. If tomorrow the inflation rate reaches 100%, the President's instruction will be fulfilled without any effort. We can keep the same volume of production in physical terms and increase the monetary value of gross output by 2 times.

If such an order was given at the beginning of 2018, it would have been fulfilled at the end of 2022, as the output increased from 4.5 to 9.5 trillion tenge during this period. That is, inflation plays a big role here. But still the Bureau of National Statistics gives data without inflation: the so-called "physical volume index". If we count by this index, then for the period 2018-2022, the volume of gross output grew by only 17%, an average of 3.1% per year. That is, the ministry would have to increase the annual growth rate from 3.1% to 14.9%. Growth of 14.9% annually through compound interest gives a growth rate of 2 times over 5 years.

The last time we achieved such growth rates was in 2011 (+21.5%), but this was followed by a sharp fall of 14.8% in 2012. In 2022, the growth rate is 9.1%. That is, the fluctuations depend most of all on grain yields, which have a high share of influence on the final result. Do we have enough land, technology to increase yields, pastures and fodder to double the production of everything in agriculture in 5 years?

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