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Will wheat exports fail to remain at the same level?

21.12.2023
Will wheat exports fail to remain at the same level?

Kazakhstan has updated statistics on the availability of cereals and legumes. Now the entire crop has been harvested, on the basis of which the analyst of the World of NAN editorial board made forecasts.

Last month, the analyst concluded that the quality wheat harvest was likely to have fallen by 29%, which was confirmed by the ministry's figures. The new figures show a year-on-year drop of 26% in quality wheat stockpiles.

As of the first of December, 15.4 million tons of cereals remained in storage, of which 12.3 million tons is wheat. However, there are 9.1 million tons of so-called "food" wheat. This is wheat that does not fall under the "feed" and "seed" categories. And yet this is not an anti-record, the minimum was observed in 2019, then there were only 8 million tons in warehouses. Will we have enough wheat until the next harvest?

Assuming that wheat import-export will remain at the level of 2023, this volume will technically be enough for us. Over the last 10 years, wheat stocks have decreased by an average of 7.5 million tons from December 1 to August 1. The minimum of 5.9 million tons was recorded in 2020, and the maximum of 8.9 million tons in 2014. That is, even if we show a maximum decrease in wheat stocks of 8.9 million tons (for example, by increasing exports), there should be enough for the next harvest.

Yet history shows that by September we usually had an average of 3.5 million tons of food wheat in storage, with a minimum level of 2.1 million tons. Let's assume that the minimum comfortable level is 2.5 million tons of carryover. In this case, we would have to reduce wheat exports by about 1 million tons compared to 2023 or increase imports, keeping exports at the same level.

For example, in 2020 before the harvest wheat exports fell by 20% or by 657 thousand tons in less than 8 months. However, this is unlikely to be enough to survive another such weak harvest while keeping exports at same level.


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